-- 'Deadly December' estimated with nearly 30,000 deaths each day as winter 
returns to the Northern Hemisphere

In the first global projections of the COVID-19 pandemic by nation, the 
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of 
Washington's School of Medicine is predicting nearly 770,000 lives worldwide 
could be saved between now and January 1 through proven measures such as 
mask-wearing and social distancing.

Logo - https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1156878/IHME_Logo.jpg

Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 total 2.8 million, about 1.9 million 
more from now until the end of the year. Daily deaths in December could reach 
as high as 30,000.

"These first-ever worldwide projections by country offer a daunting forecast as 
well as a roadmap toward relief from COVID-19 that government leaders as well 
as individuals can follow," said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. "We are 
facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, 
and the United States. But the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: 
mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to 
helping prevent transmission of the virus."

The Institute modeled three scenarios: 

    -- A "worse case" in which mask usage stays at current rates and 
       governments continue relaxing social distancing requirements, leading 
       to 4.0 million total deaths by the end of the year; 
    -- A "best case" of 2.0 million total deaths if mask usage is near-
       universal and governments impose social distancing requirements when 
       their daily death rate exceeds 8 per million; and 
    -- A "most likely" scenario that assumes individual mask use and other 
       mitigation measures remain unchanged, resulting in approximately 2.8 
       million total deaths. 

The references to 750,000 lives saved and 30,000 daily deaths in December 
represent the differences between the "best case" and "most likely" scenarios.

Each of these scenarios represents a significant increase over the current 
total deaths, estimated at nearly 910,000 worldwide. The increase is due in 
part to a likely seasonal rise in COVID-19 cases in the Northern Hemisphere. To 
date, COVID-19 has followed seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia, and if that 
correlation continues to hold, northern countries can anticipate more cases in 
the late fall and winter months.

"People in the Northern Hemisphere must be especially vigilant as winter 
approaches, since the coronavirus, like pneumonia, will be more prevalent in 
cold climates," Murray said.

Murray highlighted the unprecedented opportunity to save lives with rapid 
action.

"Looking at the staggering COVID-19 estimates, it's easy to get lost in the 
enormity of the numbers," Murray said. "The number of deaths exceeds the 
capacity of the world's 50 largest stadiums, a sobering image of the people who 
have lost their lives and livelihoods." 

Under the most likely of IHME's scenarios, the nations with the highest per 
capita total deaths would be the US Virgin Islands, the Netherlands, and Spain. 
By WHO region, this scenario projects 959,685 total deaths by January 1 in the 
Region of the Americas, 667,811 in the European Region, 79,583 in the African 
Region, 168,711 in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 738,427 in the South-East 
Asia Region, and 191,598 in the Western Pacific Region.

"We all must learn from those leaders of nations where the virus has been 
contained, or where second waves of infections have occurred, and where swift 
action has been taken to prevent loss of life," Murray said. 

He also cautioned against pursuing the so-called "herd immunity" strategy, 
which occurs when a large proportion of a community becomes immune to the virus 
through infection and recovery. The "worse-case" scenario in these projections 
reflects a situation where leaders allow transmission to run through their 
population, resulting in significant loss of life.

"This first global forecast represents an opportunity to underscore the problem 
with herd immunity, which, essentially, ignores science and ethics, and allows 
millions of avoidable deaths," Murray said. "It is, quite simply, 
reprehensible."

Here are the top 10 nations with highest per capita death forecasts with 
worse-case scenario, most likely scenario, and best scenario: 

    -- Worse case: Netherlands, Spain, US Virgin Islands, Japan, Sweden, 
       Romania, Israel, Republic of Moldova, United States of America, 
       Montenegro 

    -- Most likely: US Virgin Islands, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Peru, San 
       Marino, Sweden, United States of America, Ecuador, France 

    -- Best case: US Virgin Islands, Spain, Peru, San Marino, Kazakhstan, 
       Ecuador, Belgium, Panama, Mexico, Colombia

Top 10 nations with the highest cumulative deaths on January 1:

Worse-case scenario
India: 916,688 (range of 562,203–1,431,708)
United States of America: 620,029 (range of 463,361–874,649)
Japan: 287,635 (range of 25,669–758,716)
Spain: 180,904 (range of 97,665–282,075)
Brazil: 177,299 (range of 166,656–189,259)
Mexico: 157,264 (range of 139,863–183,739)
Philippines: 117,721 (range of 27,525–176,324)
France: 116,415 (range of 51,021–342,047)
Russian Federation: 112,367 (range of 63,165–214,363)
Netherlands: 94,332 (range of 21,815–186,842)

Most likely scenario
India: 659,537 (range of 415,118–1,087,533)
United States of America: 410,451 (range of 347,551–515,272)
Brazil: 174,297 (range of 163,982–185,913)
Mexico: 138,828 (range of 125,763–156,493)
Japan: 120,514 (range of 10,301–492,791)
Russian Federation: 94,905 (range of 57,575–170,048)
France: 73,743 (range of 44,693–161,349)
United Kingdom: 69,548 (range of 59,680–96,669)
Spain: 69,445 (range of 43,306–122,913)
Philippines: 58,412 (range of 7,660–136,079)

Best-case scenario
India: 484,981 (range of 316,111–819,426)
United States of America: 288,381 (range of 257,286–327,775)
Brazil: 160,567 (range of 152,483–169,483)
Mexico: 130,545 (range of 118,201–147,963)
Japan: 104,808 (range of 7,971–456,224)
Spain: 66,508 (range of 41,980–117,239)
United Kingdom: 59,819 (range of 57,572–65,411)
Philippines: 58,030 (range of 7,552–137,358)
France: 46,623 (range of 38,070–69,559)
Peru: 46,528 (range of 44,161–48,557)


Top 10 nations with the highest cumulative death rate per 100,000 on January 1:

Worse-case scenario
Netherlands: 549.8 (range of 127.1–1,089.0)
Spain: 393.1 (range of 212.2–612.9)
US Virgin Islands: 364.7 (range of 51.0–520.1)
Japan: 225.1 (range of 20.1–593.7)
Sweden: 223.1 (range of 83.1–894.3)
Romania: 216.1 (range of 106.9–384.4)
Israel: 195.5 (range of 93.3–363.7)
Republic of Moldova: 192.3 (range of 105.4–312.8)
United States of America: 189.0 (range of 141.3–266.7)
Montenegro: 183.3 (range of 17.5–389.5)

Most likely scenario
US Virgin Islands: 349.8 (range of 42.4–516.3)
Netherlands: 204.5 (range of 64.1–595.7)
Spain: 150.9 (range of 94.1–267.1)
Belgium: 139.7 (range of 92.3–290.6) 
Peru: 137.3 (range of 130.1–143.4) 
San Marino: 137.2 (range of 132.4–151.2)
Sweden: 125.4 (range of 71.6–394.0)
United States of America: 125.1 (range of 106.0–157.1) 
Ecuador: 118.3 (range of 109.8–129.8)
France: 111.4 (range of 67.5–243.7)

Best-case scenario
US Virgin Islands: 343.9 (range of 39.4–514.6)
Spain: 144.5 (range of 91.2–254.7)
Peru: 136.9 (range of 129.9–142.8)
San Marino: 132.1 (range of 130.9–134.2)
Kazakhstan: 121.4 (range of 53.4–183.5)
Ecuador: 117.4 (range of 109.4–128.4)
Belgium: 106.9 (range of 90.9–149.0)
Panama: 104.8 (range of 76.9–149.3)
Mexico: 104.5 (range of 94.6–118.4)
Colombia: 94.7 (range of 81.5–112.1)



IHME's projections for India are based on an epidemiological model that 
includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as 
state-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, 
mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, 
which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19. 

The new projections, including additional forecasts of daily infections, are 
available at https://covid19.healthdata.org/india, and will be regularly 
updated moving forward.

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global 
health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine 
that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important 
health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is 
committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that 
policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on 
allocating resources to improve population health.

SOURCE  Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 

CONTACT: media@healthdata.org; For Europe-based journalists: Cathy Bartley, 
cathy.bartley@bartley-robbs.co.uk