Today marks the launch of the second Ecological Threat Report (ETR) from the 
international think tank, the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP) 
[https://www.economicsandpeace.org/]. 

Key results

- Eleven of 15 countries with the worst environmental threat scores are 
currently classified as being in conflict. Another four are classified as at 
high risk of substantial falls in peace, highlighting the relationship between 
resource degradation and conflict. 
- Half of the world's population will live in the 40 least peaceful countries, 
by 2050. This will be an increase of 1.3 billion people from 2020 levels. 
- New global poll data reveals only 23% of China's citizens see climate change 
as a serious threat making it the 7th least concerned country. 
- Global food insecurity has increased by 44% since 2014, affecting 30.4% of 
the world's population in 2020, and is likely to rise further.  
- COVID-19 has increased food insecurity and prevented refugees from returning 
home. 
- With conflict having cost the global economy $600 billion in 2020, the ETR 
shows that COP26 negotiations need to approve resilience funding to ecological 
hotspots before drivers of conflict intensify.
 
The ETR analyses a broad range of indicators associated with ecological risk 
including food and water availability, population growth and societal 
resilience, to better understand the countries most at risk of experiencing 
significant deteriorations in peace.  

Conflict and ecological threats 

The main finding from the ETR 2021 is that a cyclic relationship exists between 
ecological degradation and conflict. It is a vicious cycle, whereby degradation 
of resources leads to conflict, leading to further resource degradation. Eleven 
of the 15 countries with the worst ETR scores are currently experiencing 
conflict. Another four are classified as at high risk of substantial falls in 
peace. Many more countries are likely to fall into conflict unless these cycles 
are reversed.

To reverse these cycles both the ecological environment and societal resilience 
need to improve, which requires a systemic approach. This means a reappraisal 
of how development is currently undertaken. 

Underlining the severity of the finding, the number of malnourished people has 
been steadily rising since 2016 and is forecast to rise by 343 million people 
by 2050, creating another driver for conflict. Food insecurity has also 
increased to 30.4% of the world's population, according to FAO.[1] This is the 
reversal of a trend spanning decades which has seen undernourishment steadily 
improve. Malnutrition is worse for men, especially in Africa where twice as 
many males suffer from thinness than females. Stunting is also worse in boys 
than girls.

Three areas of the world suffer from the greatest risk of societal collapse as 
a result of food insecurity, lack of water, population growth and the impacts 
of natural disasters. The Sahel-Horn belt of Africa, from Mauritania to 
Somalia; the Southern African belt, from Angola to Madagascar; the Middle East 
and Central Asian belt, from Syria to Pakistan. These areas are in urgent need 
of attention.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest prevalence of food insecurity, with 66% of 
the population deemed food insecure. By 2050, sub-Saharan Africa's population 
is projected to be 2.1 billion, a 90% increase from today's population. It also 
has the poorest measures of societal resilience.

The Sahel is the next focal point for potential societal collapse as 
demonstrated by the recent proliferation of radical Islamic groups. Niger and 
Burkina Faso are currently among the world's least peaceful countries (measured 
by the GPI) and are amongst the worst scorers on the ETR.

Ecological threat and migration 

The ETR has found that more than 1.26 billion people live in 30 hotspot 
countries, suffering from both extreme ecological risk and low levels of 
resilience. These countries are least likely to be able to mitigate and adapt 
to new ecological threats, which is likely to cause mass displacement. 
The number of people displaced by conflict has been steadily rising with 23.1 
million people from hotspot countries living outside their home country in 
2020. Europe was hosting the largest number of displaced people from hotspot 
countries, at 6.6 million. These numbers are likely to increase by tens of 
millions as ecological degradation and climate change takes hold.

Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics and 
Peace [https://www.economicsandpeace.org/], said: 

"COP26 provides an ideal opportunity for leaders to recognise that the 
ecological threats of today need to be addressed before climate change 
substantially accelerates them, costing trillions more to address.

"The solution to these problems lies in a more systemic approach, partially 
through the conscious integration of development agencies. The problems of 
conflict, food and water insecurity, displacement, business development, 
health, education and indeed climate change are interrelated, and the 
interconnectedness of these relationships must be recognised for them to best 
be addressed." 
 
Attitudes towards climate change 

New polling of over 150,000 people in 142 countries has found that the most 
significant emitters of carbon dioxide are countries where their citizens are 
least concerned with climate change. They are also some of the most populous 
countries in the world. Only 23% of China's citizens see climate change as a 
very serious threat, while India recorded only 35%. The global average was 
49.8%, with men slightly more concerned than women by 2%.[2]

Without the buy in of the citizens of these countries, climate change action is 
unlikely to be effective. 

Spanish and Portuguese speaking countries scored the highest and occupied 12 of 
the 20 top spots. Countries immersed in conflict scored poorly, with Yemen, 
Ethiopia, Egypt, and Myanmar having the worst scores.

The United States scored near the global average at 49.2%, while the United 
Kingdom had a relatively high score at 69.9%.

The greatest gender disparity was in the Scandinavian countries of Norway, 
Sweden, and Finland where women scored higher than men by 21%, 18% and 13% 
respectively.

Food insecurity 

Since 2014, the number of people without access to adequate food globally has 
risen every year, increasing by 44%. Increases in food insecurity are 
associated with deteriorations in peace. 

By 2050, the global demand for food is expected to increase by 50%. 
Due to lockdowns and border closures, COVID-19 has amplified food insecurity 
further and will likely have a long-lasting negative impact on world hunger due 
to stagnant economic growth.

Water stress

The ETR reveals that by 2040 over 5.4 billion people will live in countries 
facing extreme water stress. Lebanon and Jordan are the countries most at risk.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the most countries with the lowest levels of social 
resilience combined with the highest population growth. 70% of its population 
suffer from inadequate access to safely managed water, which will be compounded 
by high population growth. 

Building ecological resilience 

IEP worked with 60 leading policy stakeholders to develop policy 
recommendations that promote global ecological resilience. This included the 
recommendation to combine health, food, water, refugee relief, finance, 
agricultural and business development into one integrated agency in high-risk 
areas. This recognises the systemic nature of both the problems and solutions, 
allowing for a more efficient allocation of resources and faster decision 
making based on the geographical area of need. 

Although military interventions are necessary, they will not solve the 
underlying ecological issues driving the conflicts. The lesson from Afghanistan 
is that without well planned and executed development spending, obtaining peace 
is impossible. The recent fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban highlights the 
limits of the military and exposes a poor spending strategy. It is estimated 
that the total US federal expenditure on Afghanistan cost $2.261 trillion - 
$50,000 for each Afghan citizen currently living in the country. This is more 
than 100 times the average Afghan's yearly income.

For more information, visit www.economicsandpeace.org

*The 11 countries with the worst ETR score are Afghanistan, Niger, Madagascar, 
Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi, Guatemala, Mozambique, Pakistan, Angola and Yemen.

NOTES TO EDITORS

About the Ecological Threat Report (ETR) 

This is the second edition of the Ecological Threat Report (ETR), which covers 
178 independent states and territories. The ETR is unique in that it combines 
measures of resilience with the most comprehensive ecological data available to 
shed light on the countries least likely to cope with extreme ecological 
shocks, now and into the future. 

Methodology 

The ETR includes the most recent and respected scientific research on 
population growth, water stress, food insecurity, droughts, floods, cyclones, 
and rising temperature. In addition, the report uses IEP's Positive Peace 
framework to identify areas where the resilience is unlikely to be strong 
enough to adapt or cope with these future shocks. The report draws on a wide 
variety of data sources, including World Bank, World Resources Institute, Food 
and Agriculture Organization, the United Nations, the United Nations Human 
Rights Council, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, The Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate Change, International Organization for Migration and IEP. 

About the Institute for Economics and Peace 

IEP is an international and independent think tank dedicated to shifting the 
world's focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measure of human 
well-being and progress. It has offices in Sydney, Brussels, New York, The 
Hague, Mexico City and Harare. 

(1)  Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations 
(2)  Analysis IEP, source data Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll

Source: Institute of Economics and Peace